Testing the forecast of aftershocks: a simple method with an example of application


https://doi.org/10.4081/rg.2012.e5
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Authors

  • Changsheng Jiang Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, China.
  • Zhongliang Wu
    wuzl@cea-igp.ac.cn
    Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, China.
Tests of aftershock forecast have to consider the temporal distribution of aftershocks, which differ from mainshocks. This paper uses as an example the 2008 Wenchuan aftershock sequence and the load-unload response ratio forecast of aftershocks. We discuss a simplified test scheme using the Ogata-transformed time to make the transformed aftershock sequence homogenously random. While an example was taken using the Molchan error diagram, other testing schemes are also valid for the transformed aftershock sequence.