Fractal properties and simulation of micro-seismicity for seismic hazard analysis: a comparison of North Anatolian and San Andreas Fault Zones


https://doi.org/10.4081/rg.2012.e1
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Authors

  • Naside Ozer
    naside@istanbul.edu.tr
    Istanbul University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Geophysical Engineering, Turkey.
  • Savas Ceylan Istanbul University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Geophysical Engineering, Turkey; University of Missouri, Department of Geological Sciences, Columbia, MO, USA, .
We analyzed statistical properties of earthquakes in western Anatolia as well as the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in terms of spatio-temporal variations of fractal dimensions, p- and b-values. During statistically homogeneous periods characterized by closer fractal dimension values, we propose that occurrence of relatively larger shocks (M >= 5.0) is unlikely. Decreases in seismic activity in such intervals result in spatial b-value distributions that are primarily stable. Fractal dimensions decrease with time in proportion to increasing seismicity. Conversely, no spatiotemporal patterns were observed for p-value changes. In order to evaluate failure probabilities and simulate earthquake occurrence in the western NAFZ, we applied a modified version of the renormalization group method. Assuming an increase in small earthquakes is indicative of larger shocks, we apply the mentioned model to micro-seismic (M<= 3.0) activity, and test our results using San Andreas Fault Zone (SAFZ) data. We propose that fractal dimension is a direct indicator of material heterogeneity and strength. Results from a model suggest simulated and observed earthquake occurrences are coherent, and may be used for seismic hazard estimation on creeping strike-slip fault zones.